German Telco Regulator Publishes Market Forecast

The German telecommunications regulator’s 6-month report indicated that telecom and Internet service provider investment volumes of will top $7.25 billion by the end of the year.


New market parties alone are investing around DEM 3.7 billion (US$1.97 billion) in wireline activity.

Total investment in 1998 reached DEM 15.3 billion (US$8.16 billion) and DEM 3.3 billion (US$1.76 billion) went to new wireline providers. New wireline investment will be in the developing fiber optic infrastructure. At the end of the year, Germany is expected to have around 237,000 km of fiber optic cable.

Since the start of commercial service provision in 1995, the strongest area of growth in the telecom markets has been Internet and online services. After the boom year of 1998, which opened Internet activities to the mass market, the numbers have risen rapidly.

The number of online subscriptions went from 7.5 million at the end of 1998, through around 8 million in mid-year, to a forecast approximately 9 million at year ending.

Leading ISPs are T-Online, AOL and Compuserve. However, around 1,000 smaller ISPs already have half of the market.

Many service providers (SPs) offer flat rate Internet access, with Internet-by-call offered for the first time in June. This is charged by the minute to the POP and does not require any basic charge or subscription. Voice telephony SPs are expected to offer this as part of their service package.

Germany will be the largest online community in Europe in the next millennium. In the year 2002, 27.4 million Germans are forecast to be using the Internet. Germany currently lags behind the U.S., Britain and France in per capita-based use.

By the mid-year mark this year, voice telephony hit over 600 million minutes daily. The share of the new market parties was around 14 percent (over 85 million minutes daily).

Mobile networks are also on the rise in Germany, making the country a prime target for the Internet industry’s widespread wireless plans. Germany listed 15.94 million cellphones in use as of April, ranking the country second in Europe after Italy. The number of mobile phones in use is expected to rise to 21 million by the end of the year.

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