Interactive television will generate $11 billion in advertising, $7 billion
in commerce, and $2 billion in subscription revenues by 2004, says a new
research report.
The report from Forrester Research Inc. says the prime
beneficiary of these cash flows will be the early movers — cable and
satellite operators.
“Interactive TV has gone from being a laughingstock to becoming a potentially
massive revenue generator,” said Josh Bernoff, principal analyst for
Television Research at
Forrester. “As an advertising medium, it will rival the Internet within three
years.”
The report contends that three applications will transform interactive TV’s
revenue stream into a torrent: electronic program guides (EPGs), enhanced
broadcasts and TV-based Internet access. EPGs will be the vanguard of iTV, reaching 55 million homes by 2004.
Advertisers will rush to reach viewers through EPG banner ads, info pages and
buttons, generating $3.2 billion in advertising and $1.1 billion in commerce
within five years, predicts the report.
Enhanced broadcasts will build more slowly, eventually pouring into 24
million homes in 2004. The interactive programming in enhanced broadcasts,
like play-along game
shows and special events with enhanced content, will build viewer loyalty and
create new e-commerce opportunities. Forrester estimates that enhanced
broadcasts will generate
$6.2 billion in advertising revenues and $3.8 billion in commerce by 2004.
Five years from now, TV-based Web browsing in 13 million homes will generate
$5 billion in revenues from subscriptions, advertising, and commerce, the
report predicts.
“Interactive television will turn the media industry inside out, with EPGs
touching more Americans than any other media property,” Bernoff said. “As ITV
sweeps across the
consumer landscape, it will pull advertising dollars away from existing
media, including television and the Web.”
The majority of iTV revenues will go to cable and satellite operators and
technology vendors like Wink, Liberate, Microsoft and America Online, says
the report.
For the report entitled “Interactive TV Cash Flows” Forrester interviewed
executives from more than 60 companies, including broadcast networks, cable
networks, cable and
satellite operators, advertising agencies, producers, and technology vendors.
